How The Presidential Polls Might Be Wrong in 2024

 

As the 2024 presidential election approaches, polling data reveals a neck-and-neck race between the candidates. However, experts are increasingly skeptical about the accuracy of the polls. Polling mishaps in recent elections, particularly in 2016 and 2020, have caused many to question the reliability of current methods and theories. With polling errors from previous cycles still looming large, the question arises: could 2024’s presidential polls be as wrong as they have been in the past?

A Look Back: Polling Inaccuracy in 2016 and 2020

Polls have had a checkered history in recent U.S. elections. In 2016, virtually every major poll predicted Hillary Clinton’s victory. Clinton was widely expected to sweep key battleground states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—states that form the so-called “blue wall.” Yet, in a stunning upset, Donald Trump won all three states and clinched the presidency. The glaring error left many wondering how the polls had been so wrong.

Fast forward to 2020, and the picture wasn’t much clearer. Polling for that election was described as the “most inaccurate in 40 years.” Despite forecasters predicting a comfortable win for President Joe Biden, his final victory margin was far narrower than expected. Some experts believe that the global pandemic may have skewed voter turnout patterns and led to polling errors. Fewer people engaged with surveys, and the polls failed to capture the growing enthusiasm among Trump’s base. While Biden still won, the inaccuracy in the prediction was concerning.

Why 2024 Polling May Face the Same Issues

The recurring errors from 2016 and 2020 have created renewed concerns over the accuracy of polling heading into 2024. Pollsters are aware of the issues and have tried to adjust their methods, but there’s no guarantee they will fix the problem. 

One of the primary reasons for polling errors in presidential elections, as opposed to midterms, is the sheer complexity of a presidential race. Dozens of polling firms use a wide range of methods, from mail surveys to phone calls and online polls. Pollsters have tried to compensate for these challenges by "weighting" certain demographic factors, such as age, education, and gender, to ensure a more accurate sample. But these efforts have met with mixed results.

Weighting has become a crucial aspect of modern polling, especially since pollsters failed to reach many less-educated voters in 2016, a group that ultimately supported Trump in large numbers. Pollsters also started employing another technique—weighting by “recalled vote,” where respondents are asked to recall whom they voted for in the previous election. However, this method comes with its own challenges, as respondents may misremember or misreport their previous votes, thus skewing the data.

The Biases That Can Influence Poll Results

Several types of biases can skew polling results. One significant bias is *recency bias*, where voters are inclined to believe that the most recent winner will win again. Trump supporters, for instance, may be more confident about his chances in 2024 because of his surprise win in 2016. 

Another common problem is *nonresponse bias*, where certain groups of voters are less likely to participate in polls. Historically, Trump supporters have been underrepresented in polling samples because they tend to be less responsive to surveys. As a result, polls may underestimate Trump’s support. Interestingly, some Democrats have speculated that this year, polls might be similarly undercounting key Democratic demographics, like Black voters and young people, further complicating predictions.

The Shy Voter Theory and the Bradley Effect

One theory that has gained traction is the *Shy Voter Theory*, which suggests that some Trump supporters are reluctant to admit their voting preference to pollsters. This reluctance could stem from fear of judgment or social stigma, making them less likely to disclose their true voting intentions. As a result, polls might underestimate Trump’s actual support, as was believed to be the case in both the 2016 and 2020 elections.

Another related concept is the *Bradley Effect*, named after Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, a Black candidate who lost the 1982 California gubernatorial race despite leading in the polls. The theory posits that some white voters, when asked by pollsters, do not openly admit they would not vote for a Black candidate. Though the theory was largely disproven during Barack Obama’s presidential campaigns, where he won by significant margins, some believe it could play a role in 2024, especially if Kamala Harris, the first Black woman to run for president, is on the ticket.

Unified Theory vs. Patchwork Theory

Political analysts have debated various theories to explain the discrepancy between polling results and actual outcomes. One such theory is the *Unified Theory*, which argues that presidential polling is less accurate than midterm polling because presidential elections engage a broader, less responsive voter base. Trump supporters, in particular, are thought to be less likely to engage with pollsters, thus skewing the results. According to this theory, polls were more accurate in the 2018 and 2022 midterm elections because they only captured the views of highly engaged voters.

In contrast, the *Patchwork Theory* offers a different explanation. This theory suggests that the errors in 2016 and 2020 were unique to each election and do not necessarily indicate a broader problem with polling. In 2016, pollsters overrepresented college-educated voters and undecided voters, which led to a false assumption that Clinton would win. In 2020, the pandemic disrupted people’s lives and may have altered voting patterns, making it difficult for pollsters to capture an accurate picture.

A Clouded Forecast for 2024

As we approach the 2024 election, polling figures show a dead heat between the candidates. However, with so many factors at play, it’s difficult to determine how accurate these polls will be. Even a small polling error could have a massive impact on the race. If polls fail to account for underrepresented demographics or biases like the Shy Voter Theory, the actual outcome could be vastly different from what’s predicted.

In the end, the reliability of polling in the 2024 election remains a major question mark. The methods have evolved since the missteps of 2016 and 2020, but it’s clear that polling is not an exact science. Pollsters, voters, and analysts alike will have to wait and see whether 2024 brings a more accurate picture—or another unexpected twist in the race for the White House.